WTI Crude — Agent Adda Research

Interactive Price Chart

EMA 9

EMA 21

Supertrend

Bollinger

▲ Darvas B/O

◆ Key event

── ST+Cup triggers

← hover chart for bar narrative

PRICE · CANDLES · JUN–SEP 2026

ST+Cup Signals

A · Breakout

>$93.50 + vol≥300K
Target $107 · R/R 5.4:1

B · Pullback

$88–89 · RSI<48→52
Target $93.50 · R/R ~3:1

⛔ Neither triggered
RSI 75.5 · Price $91.48

VOLUME

RSI 14

MACD 12·26·9

Agent Adda · Bar Narrative

Sep 7, 2026 · Latest

$91.48

What's Happening

WTI surged +30% from Aug lows in a powerful Supertrend rally. Now pressing double resistance $93.29–$93.50. Decision territory.

Indicators

RSI 1475.5 · Overbought

MACD Hist+0.822 ↑

Supertrend$82.17 · Bull

EMA 9$88.09

EMA 21$82.55

Volume197K · Low

Signal Read

Trend fully aligned bull. RSI 75.5 + failed resistance + light volume = do not chase. Wait for trigger.

Strategy Status

📡 ST+Cup · WATCHING
Waiting for: (A) breakout >$93.50 + vol, or (B) pullback $88–89 + RSI reset <48. Hover bar 63 for near-miss.

Research Analysis

The Big Picture

WTI spent most of 2025 in a bear phase, sliding from $85 to a cycle low of $61 in Aug 2025 as OPEC+ gradually unwound production cuts. The Aug 31, 2026 Darvas breakout above $85.76 — on 501K contracts (2.5× average) — marked a decisive regime change. The Sep 1 follow-through on 631K contracts confirmed institutional accumulation. The rally now stalls at the $93.29–$93.50 confluence of the Darvas box top and VCP pivot.

Technical Structure

Price is in Weinstein Stage 2: above EMA9 ($88.09) and EMA21 ($82.55), Supertrend rising at $82.17. Bollinger Bands narrowing (squeeze) — a decisive close above $93.50 resolves it upward, projecting ~$107 (measured move = box width $13.50).

Risk: RSI at 75.5 is overbought. WTI historically mean-reverts 5–8% from RSI >75 before continuation. The Aug 5 dip to $78 was the last such reset.

Backtest Evidence · 6.5yr

13 strategies tested on 1,428 daily bars with real futures sizing ($100k, 1,000 bbl/contract, $6k margin). Only two generated positive returns with meaningful sample sizes:

Supertrend alone — 15 trades, 53% win, +42%, Sharpe 0.73, −83% DD.

ST + Cup & Handle — 10 trades, 70% win, +33%, Sharpe 0.86, −54% DD. Better risk-adjusted; drawdown cut 29 points by the Cup filter.

▲ Scenario A — Breakout Entry

Daily close above $93.50 on volume ≥ 300K confirms Darvas box breakout + VCP resolution. This is the exact ST+Cup trigger. Bollinger squeeze resolution projects ~$107.

Entry triggerClose >$93.50 + vol≥300K

Target~$107 (measured move)

Stop$91.00 (2-day low)

Risk / contract$2,500

Reward / contract~$13,500

R/R ratio~5.4 : 1

↓ Scenario B — Pullback Entry

RSI overbought + failed resistance → 5–8% pullback to $88–89 zone (EMA9 support), RSI resetting below 60. Supertrend must hold at $82.17. This is the ST+RSI Pullback strategy trigger (Sharpe 2.19 on 3 historical trades).

Entry zone$88.00–$89.00

RSI condition<48 dip → >52 recovery

Target$93.50 resistance

Stop$86.50 (below EMA21)

Risk / contract$1,500–$2,500

R/R ratio~2.5–3 : 1

Strategy Leaderboard · 6.5 Years · Real Futures Sizing